At the Forge - Issue 200

Reuven reminisces about the past of the Web, describes its present state and makes some predictions for the future.
The Future

So, where are things going?

First, we already can see that the notion of the Web as something people browse, with large centralized servers providing static information, is largely inaccurate. People and machines are both surfing, and they are doing it with programs that are increasingly not Web browsers, but rather that contain HTTP client libraries. The servers are spread all over, and the information is far from static. Just as I was writing this column, Google announced that it had changed the way its search system works, such that it updates the page of search results as you type keywords, not just when you click the Submit button. Just as the Web is always changing, and just as each person sees a different, personalized slice of the Web, your search results now also will give you a view of data that is uniquely yours.

We also can expect to see an even greater decline in desktop software. This is actually good news for fans of Linux and other open-source operating systems, because it means there will be less of a lag between the quality, availability and user experience that Windows and Macintosh users have long enjoyed with their desktop software. The Web browser is indeed becoming, years after Marc Andreessen predicted it while working at Netscape, the main focus for application development, deployment and usage. Even those programs that aren't browsers will be browsers, connecting to the Internet and retrieving (or sending) information, exchanging data with other servers.

When the idea of Web services first became popular about a decade ago, everyone used the example of a spell-checker as a Web service to which your word processor could connect. The reason for this example was not only that it was easy to grasp, but also that we had no idea just what Web services could provide. Nowadays, such services can provide private information (such as contact info) or public information (such as maps and photos). We will continue to see growth on the Web services front, although outside the enterprise, it seems that developers have largely abandoned SOAP in favor of lighter-weight technologies.

One of the reasons Web-based applications will become so good is because of HTML5, a combination of improvements to HTML, CSS and JavaScript that are being implemented piecemeal, but which together will make the browser far more than the “modern dumb terminal” description that often is applied to it. New form features, new ways to validate data, easier access to the DOM, new CSS selectors and features, and a greater variety of semantic markers in the HTML will make this a very important upgrade. My only worry and complaint is that each browser manufacturer is implementing different parts of HTML5 at different times, meaning we'll need to worry about graceful degradation for some time.

Future Columns

So, what do I intend to discuss in future installments of At the Forge? I'll certainly try to cover some of the basic technologies that are useful to Web developers, such as the recent release of Ruby on Rails 3 and the release of PostgreSQL 9.0. I'll spend some time exploring the HTML5 standard, looking both at the new tags we can enjoy in our HTML and at the improvements in JavaScript we can use in our applications.

I also intend to look into some of the newer languages that have emerged, as well as the Web frameworks built on such languages. The three languages and frameworks that intrigue me the most are Lift (for Scala), Compojure (for Clojure) and Seaside (for Smalltalk).

Storage—the non-relational databases will gain popularity. More important, they will gain features we have grown to expect in relational databases, such as joins and data integrity. The end result will be a number of different non-relational options that can be mixed and matched for an application, much as a developer might mix and match the use of arrays and hashes. Will they trump non-relational databases? I doubt it, but I'll try to cover developments from this world and how they affect developers, as things happen.

Finally, the growth of “microformats”, tiny JSON- and XML-based document formats designed to ease machine-to-machine communication is something I intend to look into. How do you use a microformat and when would you want to do so?

It continues to be a privilege to write for Linux Journal. I enjoy hearing from readers when they contact me and helping inform fellow open-source developers of the latest on the Web technology front. And, I look forward to writing an even more comprehensive retrospective in another eight years, when we'll reach LJ #300.

Reuven M. Lerner is a longtime Web developer, architect and trainer. He is a PhD candidate in learning sciences at Northwestern University, researching the design and analysis of collaborative on-line communities. Reuven lives with his wife and three children in Modi'in, Israel.


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